Monday, December 8, 2014

Depending on location, snow totals will range from 0 to over 12 inches!


Well, I'm sure you've seen about 50 different forecasts floating around Facebook lately. Even the meteorologists on TV aren't in agreement with this storm. Hopefully this article will give you a better understanding of what will happen.

Here's what I do know:

There is a storm
It's a 2 day event (Tuesday-Wednesday)
There will be rain
There will be snow
There will be a mix
There will be snow accumulations over 12 inches
There will be areas with absolutely NO snow accumulations 

Here's what I don't know:

How warm will the air be aloft?
How long will it take for colder air to move back in?
How far north will the ALL RAIN line be?
How far north will the MIX line be?
Will elevations see predominately snow?

It's pretty sad that the storm is occurring TOMORROW and the computer models don't really have a grip on this thing. If anyone tells you confidently that a certain area WILL see a certain amount, they are pulling your leg. This is a storm where the slightest adjustment in track, elevation, and temperature could be the reason for high or low snow totals. 

Start time: 

Showers of rain/sleet/snow will start moving in between 2am and 7am across the area. The further South you are, the earlier precip arrives. The further North you are, the later precip arrives. 

What to expect by region:

Region 1:
Philadelphia - Lancaster - Harrisburg - Reading - Allentown - Easton 

Some mix to start, but quickly changing over to PLAIN RAIN. If traveling before daybreak Tuesday, just be aware that a few icy spots are possible. Other than that, this will predominately be a RAIN event for you. Rain will be heavy at times. Flash flooding is possible in poor drainage areas. Rain will taper off during the day on Wednesday.

Region 2: Selingsgrove - Pottsville - Tamaqua - Schuylkill Haven - Pine Grove - Nesquehoning - Palmerton - Stroudsburg - Nanticoke - Wilkes Barre - Scranton - Danville - Shamokin 

Some mix to start, but quickly changing over to PLAIN RAIN. If traveling before daybreak Tuesday, just be aware that a few icy spots are possible. A cold-plain rain will last throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Once we head into the evening, things start to get tricky. Will the rain stick around? Will temps aloft become cold enough to support snow? That's the million dollar question. If rain DOES change over to snow (late afternoon-early evening), we could be looking at some decent snow totals. Maybe 5-9" by the time it's all said and done on Wednesday. HOWEVER, if rain takes it's good old time changing to snow, totals could range from 1-4" across this area. So with that said, IT'S UNKNOWN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. This is one of those events where you just gotta watch to see when rain changes to snow in your area. If you have travel plans, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I'm not issuing a specific range for snow totals because it's impossible to know what time the rain will actually change to snow. The event will taper off during the day on Wednesday. 

Region 3:
Elevations: Hazleton - Frackville -Mcadoo - Delano - Freeland - Summit Hill - Albrightsville - Mountain Top - Mount Pocono 

Mix to start the event. Precipitation will change over to PLAIN RAIN during the morning. However, it's possible that you start seeing snow mix back in by the early afternoon. Regardless, you should be completely transitioned to snow by the early evening hours. Snow will be heavy at times. Totals are not set in stone in your area either. I'm leaning towards a 6-10" event for most elevated terrain. However, amounts over 12" are possible in areas that experience deformation bands of snow. Snow will taper off during the day on Wednesday. 

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3 comments:

  1. Hoping for an early change over to snow! Looking for some decent snow totals

    ReplyDelete
  2. thats a nice way of doing things....Hope you get lots of snow...:)

    ReplyDelete